Kopint-Tarki – Kopint Tárki Konjunktúrakutató Intézet

Manufacturing index Q2 2026

2026.09.05

According to KOPINT-TÁRKI’s July 2026 survey, optimism in the Hungarian manufacturing sector has moderated, while the sector remains stable but vulnerable. The main challenge for companies continues to be weak demand, compounded by geopolitical tensions, volatile energy prices and the effects of climate change. There are, however, encouraging signs, including a gradual improvement in order books, positive production expectations and rising inventories in anticipation of a recovery.
Confidence in the Hungarian economy has also eased, although businesses remain hopeful about the reopening of EU funding and broader opportunities for fair competition.

Read the full report here.

Economic Trends 2026/2

2026.07.15

The second issue of Economic Trends for 2026 has been published. The complete series can be found here: Economic Trends in Eastern Europe.

China-CEE project workshop

2026.07.01

In June 2026, researchers from Kopint-Tárki and China-CEE held a joint workshop on automotive industry cooperation between Eastern Europe and China as part of the research that Kopint-Tárki is undertaking for China-CEE.

More information and downloads of materials can be found on the project page.

New chairman János István Tóth

2026.06.05

At its general meeting on 28 May, 2026, Kopint-Tárki elected István János Tóth as chairman of the board following the death of chairman Tamás Kolosi.

István János Tóth worked as a research fellow at Kopint-Datorg (the predecessor of Kopint-Tárki) from 1988 to 1997. He subsequently worked at the Institute of Economics of the Hungarian Academy of Sciences (and its legal successors). From 2002 to 2017, he headed the Institute for Economic and Business Analysis, which operates under the Hungarian Chamber of Commerce and Industry.

Among his areas of research, the analysis of corruption in Hungary using scientific statistical methods stands out; this work was primarily conducted within the framework of the CRCB (Corruption Research Center Budapest). He has published numerous studies on this topic, in both Hungarian and English, which have been widely cited.

MNB-Reuters forecasting competition awards

2026.05.20

We are happy to announce that KOPINT-TÁRKI has participated in the MNB-Reuters forecasting competition, where Éva Palócz and Zoltán Matheika took second place. Congratulations!

All posts

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	1.8%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	-2.0%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	4.5%	4.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.4%	6.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.7%	4.6%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	0.8%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.8%	-5.0%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	1.8%	2.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.0%	4.0%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	5.6%	5.2%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

01.09.2026. GDP: decelerating consumption growth, investments keep falling in Q2

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.5%. Within the EU, the Hungarian growth performance was close to the median.
Private consumption decelerated somewhat, as expected. The reacceleration of the decline in fixed capital formation was unexpected, however. At the same time, the contribution of the changes in inventories to growth became even more pronounced. Final domestic use expanded at a respectable pace of 5%.
As for external trade, the export of goods expanded in the second quarter, after almost three years of uninterrupted decline. As a result, the downward effect of net exports on GDP growth became less extreme than in the previous quarter.
On the production side, industrial growth gathered some momentum, which offset the slowdown in services growth and the steep fall in drought-stricken agriculture.
Provided that investments start expanding in the second half of the year, due to the renewed inflow of EU funds and the changed institutional background, the GDP growth rate might reach 2% in 2026.

30.07.2026. GDP: modest growth continues in Q2

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 1.7%, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP expanded by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.4%. The second-quarter growth performance somewhat fell short of the average of analysts’ expectations.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, with industry contributing positively and agriculture contributing negatively to GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably continued to severely weigh on growth.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki still expects GDP to expand at a rate of around 2%. On the other hand, the mounting shocks generated by the Iran war may upend the baseline growth scenario.

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Manufacturing index Q2 2026

Economic Trends 2026/2

China-CEE project workshop

New chairman János István Tóth

MNB-Reuters forecasting competition awards

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