Our latest report paints a rather gloomy picture, with a high degree of uncertainty about the future projected by companies. While the current situation is not yet perceived dramatically by managers, uncertainty of the general economic environment is the biggest problem, and rapidly deteriorating financing opportunities are also a growing concern.
A short summary in English is available here, together with the confidence and barometer figures.
The global economic outlook has markedly deteriorated in the past months. China’s strict
no-COVID policy has muted Chinese economic growth, the escalation of the Russian-
Ukrainian conflict pushed global inflation even further, the bottlenecks in global shipping and
the shortages in various products remained biting. In Hungary, a gargantuan stimulus package in February unsurprisingly made for very dynamic growth in the first quarter, but the 8.2% growth rate still came as a surprise to most observers. The full report is available here.
Eurofound has published its annual review of minimum wages with Kopint-Tárki’s contribution on the Hungarian context. “In five central and eastern European Member States, the growth in statutory rates reached two digits: the most notable progress took place in Hungary (above +19%),” says the working paper regarding changes in the region. The publication can be downloaded here.
The global economic situation is characterized by galloping inflation, decelerating global trade, recurring supply chain disturbances, tightening monetary policy, volatile financial markets and political conflicts. After an upward trend at the start of the year, confidence indices turned downward again. The full report is available here.
The SpringerLink e-book publication titled “Emerging European Economies after the Pandemic. Stuck in the Middle Income Trap?” edited by László Mátyás has been released. The extensive collection of studies examines in 12 chapters the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic in the region. It is available for download here.
The third chapter “Firm Size, Productivity, EU Funds and Corruption” was written by Éva Palócz (KOPINT-Tárki) and István János Tóth (Tárki Institute).
A summary of analyses prepared for the Hungarian Fiscal Council in 2021 has been published under the title ‘National Economy, Public Finances in the Time of the Coronavirus Pandemic’. The volume includes contributions from our Institute’s staff:
Zoltán Matheika – Miklós Losoncz – Éva Palócz. Macroeconomic review of 2020 and the first half of 2021 – p. 23
Katalin Nagy – Rozália Bogó – Miklós Losoncz – Éva Palócz – Péter Vakhal: Impacts of the world economy – with special regard to Brexit – on the EU, including Hungary’s economy and public finances – p. 99
Rozália Bogó- Krisztián Koppány – Nóra Krokovay – Zoltán Matheika – Éva Palócz – Péter Vakhal: Covid-19, sustainability and socio-economic development related to competitiveness in Hungary – p.109
The publication is available for download here.
After a positive performance in the second quarter the world economy could slip back slightly in the third quarter, on the back of growing risks. Growth of 5.7% was projected for 2021 and 4.5% for 2022. Faster growth and inflation could compel national banks to take steps. In most countries fiscal policy continues to be supportive and growth mainly hinges on fiscal incentives this year.
The full report is available here.