We are sad to inform you with profound grief of the passing of our dear colleague and friend, Júlia Orbán, who until the very recent past was a valued consultant at our institute. She died at the age of 84 on New Year’s Day.
We will always keep a loving memory of her warm personality, sensitivity and attention that she expressed through her close friendship with many of us over the years.
The year 2023 started reasonably well in the global economy, and an acceleration of growth seemed realistic, but later the hope regarding China’s recovery from lockdown proved exaggerated, the negative impact of worldwide monetary tightening has become more pronounced and even the downward trend in energy prices was followed by an uptick during the fall. In Hungary, during the past year and a half, the economic growth trajectory underwent a drastic change of direction, from the outstanding growth rate in early 2022 to the substantial decline in the second quarter of this year.
Please read the full report here.
The global economic outlook has markedly deteriorated in the past months. China’s strict no-COVID policy has muted Chinese economic growth, the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict pushed global inflation even further, the bottlenecks in global shipping and the shortages in various products remained biting. In Hungary, a gargantuan stimulus package in February unsurprisingly made for very dynamic growth in the first quarter, but the 8.2% growth rate still came as a surprise to most observers.
Please read our fresh report here.
Read our latest report on the world economy and the Hungarian economy here.
The series Eurofound Developments in Working Life 2022 has now been published, with 28 country reports, among them the one on Hungary. The working paper, authored by our colleague Ágnes Hárs, discusses the latest developments in working life, industrial relations and social dialogue in Hungary.
KOPINT-Tárki analysts have won the Consensus Economics 2022 Forecast Accuracy Award for Hungary. The prize was awarded to the team of analysts at the Budapest-based economic research institute KOPINT-Tárki, Zoltán Matheika and Éva Palócz, for the accuracy of their economic forecasts. In the 24-month competition, the teams of analysts produced forecasts for real GDP and inflation every month. Congratulations!
Despite the rather unfavourable external economic conditions, the situation of domestic manufacturing companies – both objective and perceived – is surprisingly positive. Based on the responses to the latest Kopint-Tárki Business Sentiment Survey, neither the energy crisis nor high procurement costs and interest rates have caused a lasting shock in the sector. However, the current situation and outlook for the country is perceived by respondents as decidedly worse, suggesting that the government and various organisations have failed to ease the uncertainty among companies. This is leading to increased caution among companies, which is also affecting investment and consumer prices.
A short summary in English is available here, together with the confidence and barometer figures.