Ágnes Hárs and Nóra Krokovay presented KOPINT-Tárki as a new member at the 16th annual conference organised by the European Trade Union Institute (ETUI) of the Trade Union Related Research Institutes (TURI) network, in Athens, on 4 to 5 October. The introductory presentation by was received with a warm welcome by members of the network, among them CEE institutes such as the Bratislava-based Central European Labour Studies, the Warsaw-based Institute of Public Affairs and the Lithuanian Centre for Social Sciences. The title of our presentation was: Recent developments in the Hungarian labour market and working life – Similarities and differences.

According to the OECD, global economic growth will be 3.2% in both 2024 and 2025, amid continuing disinflation, making it possible to keep up monetary easing. While commodity prices are falling, upward price pressures are still present in the services sector. The growth in world trade has halted and the pre-pandemic growth rates are unlikely to return during the forecast period. The protracted logistical problems, the excess inventories and the geopolitical tensions are hindering global trade, along with the EU-China trade war, an additional factor of uncertainty.

Read the full report here.

The OECD’s global growth forecast moved up, to 3.1% for 2024 and 3.2% for 2025 with monetary policy still expected to be the main obstacle to growth. Global trade growth decelerated to just 0.3% in 2023, and it is likely to remain moderate – about 3% – in 2023-2024. The growth prospects are clouded by weak consumption demand in China, the USA and the EU. In the first quarter of this year, the combined GDP of the EU13 countries only grew by 1.5% annually, a disappointing outcome. In Hungary, after stagnating at the end of 2023, the economy was up 0.8% on a quarterly basis and 1.1% compared to the same quarter of last year. While there was an upturn in consumption, the positive GDP growth was only possible because of the positive contribution of net export, the report says. Read the full report here.

FocusEconomics recognised the KOPINT-Tárki research team for their accurate inflation forecasts for Hungary in 2023. Congratulations!

Eurofound has published a report titled Social impact of migration: Addressing the challenges of receiving and integrating Ukrainian refugees. The report’s author is Klára Fóti and sections on Hungary were written using Kopint-Tárki’s contribution as the Hungarian correspondent for Eurofound NEC.

After 2022, in 2023, too, Kopint-Tárki researchers won the London Consensus Economics’ Forecast Accuracy Award, the most prestigious forecasting award in the world. The prize was awarded for the most accurate forecast of Hungarian GDP growth and Consumer Price Index in 2023 forecasts. KOPINT-Tárki colleagues Zoltán Matheika and Éva Palócz won ahead of 22 domestic and foreign forecasters. Forecasters send in their projections for all indicators for 24 months. The assessment methodology can be found here. An official list of Forecast Accuracy Awards winners will be published on the Consensus Economics website in mid-April. Congratulations!