Kopint-Tarki – Kopint Tárki Konjunktúrakutató Intézet

Konjunktúrajelentés 2026 tavasz

2026.04.17

Megjelent a KOPINT-TÁRKI ‘A világgazdaság és a magyar gazdaság helyzete és kilátásai 2026 tavaszán – 2026/1’ című kiadványa. A jelentés letölthető innen, az összefoglaló pedig innen. A sajtótájékoztató prezentáció letölthető innen.

Manufacturing index in Q4’25

2026.02.27

The barometer in the 2026 January survey points to stagnation by the fourth quarter of 2025. Half of the companies surveyed currently view their situation as average, and only a quarter of them consider their situation to be good. Companies producing solely for the domestic market are more pessimistic than exporters, and growth in order books is almost exclusively linked to export markets. Among the factors hindering production, lack of demand continues to dominate.

Read the summary in English here.

Eurofound NEC contract renewed

2026.02.24

The KOPINT-TÁRKI Institute has been a member of Eurofound’s Network of Correspondents (NEC) for Hungary since 2018. Now the contract has been renewed for the third cycle. Reports, working papers and case studies for Eurofound involve many subjects, most recently the following reports were published with KOPINT-TÁRKI contributions/authorship:
Hárs, Ágnes (2025) Hungary: Developments in working life 2024
Bogó, Rozália. – Eurofound (2025) Digitalisation, skills development and digital innovation in SMEs – Country report: Hungary
Krokovay, Nóra – Eurofound. (2025) Hungary: Non-governmental efforts to prepare for gender pay transparency requirements. In: The practical implementation of the work of equal value principle: Case studies
Eurofound (2025), Minimum wages in 2025: Annual review, Minimum wages in the EU series, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.

More on the work with Eurofound NEC here.

Economic Trends 2025/2 out now

2025.09.18

KOPINT-TÁRKI is revising downwards its growth forecasts for the member states in the Central- and Eastern European region, for reasons explained in the forecast publication which is out now.

Read the full report here.

Hope4AI project ends with study

2025.08.08

KOPINT-TÁRKI’s participation in the Hope4AI project, has come to an end with a published study on the role of AI in commerce and the machine industry in Hungary and Romania. The study was a result of a collaboration with project partner MGYOSZ. More information on the project where you can download the study can be found here.

Eurofound NEC Meeting in Dublin

2025.04.17

From 9 to 11 April 2025, two colleagues from KOPINT-TÁRKI visited Dublin for the biannual meeting of the Eurofound Partner Network (NEC), where 27 countries were represented. Presentations were about this year’s forthcoming programme, the role of artificial intelligence in research and a panel discussion on the impact of the automotive industry on employment.

New Eurofound publications with KOPINT-TÁRKI contribution

2025.03.26

Eurofound published three studies with contributions from KOPINT-TÁRKI researchers recently: on the labour-market situation of older workers, on European Semester and RRF-related policies, and on the complex problems of home carers. KOPINT-TÁRKI has been a member of the Eurofound correspondents’ network NEC since 2018; you can read more about this work and all publications here.

All posts

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	2.0%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	4.7%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	1.3%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.2%	7.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.0%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	3.5%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.5%	4.5%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	7.3%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

02.12.2025. GDP: weakening consumption growth, deteriorating external position, change in inventories turns the tables

The second estimate confirms that both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% in Q3 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the GDP remained flat. The overall growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.3%.
On the expenditure side, most components actually deteriorated, including private and public consumption growth rates. The net external trade position also worsened spectacularly. A dramatic turn in the change in inventories was the only reason the year-on-year rate of GDP – and final domestic use – growth accelerated in the third quarter.
On the production side, the contraction in agriculture and industry moderated in the third quarter, while services growth accelerated minimally – due to government services.
We currently expect the GDP to grow at a rate below 0.5% this year.

03.03.2026. GDP: accelerating consumption growth, no improvement in external trade

According to the second estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted year-on-year rate of 0.8% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.2%. On an annual average, GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025.
Some improvement was observed in most components of domestic demand, leading to a respectable growth rate of 3.8% in final domestic use.
On the other hand, net export dragged down economic growth even more than in the third quarter, due to an uptick in the growth in imports of both goods and services.
On the production side, the contraction in weather-stricken agriculture moderated significantly, industrial output continued to decline, while construction activity picked up. Services growth, however, lost momentum, despite the slight uptick in consumption growth.
Due to the absence of conditions for more spectacular recovery, a GDP growth rate of 2% can be seen as a best-case scenario for 2026.

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