Economic Trends 2024/1 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary

In the world economy, we report that the global growth rate reached 3.1% in 2023 and might be slightly lower in the coming two years. Global growth will be hampered mainly by a slowdown in China but some
deceleration will occur in the US as well, although the American economy proved to be more resilient than expected. The economic performance in the euro area will remain sluggish in 2023, following last year’s decline, mainly due to the weakness of the German economy, the report says.
Growth in the CEE region continued to be led by Poland (1.7%) and Romania (1.1%); Croatia achieved the fastest growth last year, while Hungary was in recession, and record-level inflation dampened the domestic purchasing power. Please read the full report here.

Forecast award winners again in 2023

After 2022, in 2023, too, Kopint-Tárki researchers won the London Consensus Economics’ Forecast Accuracy Award, the most prestigious forecasting award in the world. The prize was awarded for the most accurate forecast of Hungarian GDP growth and Consumer Price Index in 2023 forecasts. KOPINT-Tárki colleagues Zoltán Matheika and Éva Palócz won ahead of 22 domestic and foreign forecasters. Forecasters send in their projections for all indicators for 24 months. The assessment methodology can be found here. An official list of Forecast Accuracy Awards winners will be published on the Consensus Economics website in mid-April. Congratulations!

Deepest condolences

We are sad to inform you with profound grief of the passing of our dear colleague and friend, Júlia Orbán, who until the very recent past was a valued consultant at our institute. She died at the age of 84 on New Year’s Day.

We will always keep a loving memory of her warm personality, sensitivity and attention that she expressed through her close friendship with many of us over the years.

Economic Trends 2023/3 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary

The year 2023 started reasonably well in the global economy, and an acceleration of growth seemed realistic, but later the hope regarding China’s recovery from lockdown proved exaggerated, the negative impact of worldwide monetary tightening has become more pronounced and even the downward trend in energy prices was followed by an uptick during the fall. In Hungary, during the past year and a half, the economic growth trajectory underwent a drastic change of direction, from the outstanding growth rate in early 2022 to the substantial decline in the second quarter of this year.

Please read the full report here.

Economic Trends 2023/2 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary out

The global economic outlook has markedly deteriorated in the past months. China’s strict no-COVID policy has muted Chinese economic growth, the escalation of the Russian-Ukrainian conflict pushed global inflation even further, the bottlenecks in global shipping and the shortages in various products remained biting. In Hungary, a gargantuan stimulus package in February unsurprisingly made for very dynamic growth in the first quarter, but the 8.2% growth rate still came as a surprise to most observers.

Please read our fresh report here.

Manufacturing sentiment index in spring 2023

Despite the rather unfavourable external economic conditions, the situation of domestic manufacturing companies – both objective and perceived – is surprisingly positive. Based on the responses to the latest Kopint-Tárki Business Sentiment Survey, neither the energy crisis nor high procurement costs and interest rates have caused a lasting shock in the sector. However, the current situation and outlook for the country is perceived by respondents as decidedly worse, suggesting that the government and various organisations have failed to ease the uncertainty among companies. This is leading to increased caution among companies, which is also affecting investment and consumer prices.

A short summary in English is available here, together with the confidence and barometer figures.