Budgetary position in the light of the world economic conditions (in Hungarian)

The study provides an overview of the medium-term processes of the world economy and their impact on the Hungarian economy (growth) and public finances.

The study consists of four chapters. The first chapter examines the evolution of growth conditions in the world economy in the second half of 2010, in particular:

  • factors contributing to the medium-term slowdown
  • the emergence of new types of risks over the past five years: trade policy tensions, the Brexit process, the unpredictability of US foreign relations
  • current trends in the international financial environment and the macroeconomic effects of expected changes: the consequences of tightening monetary policy, risk aversion among investors, capital outflows from emerging markets, stock market risks
  • growth prospects and risks by major region.

The second chapter analyzes the structure and dynamics of Hungarian foreign trade:

  • the regional structure and geographical concentration of Hungarian exports, with special regard to the growth poles
  • the regional structure and geographical concentration of Hungarian imports
  • adaptation of Hungarian exports to world economic restructuring.

The third chapter examines the commodity structure of Hungarian exports and imports and its changes in various foreign trade relations.

The fourth chapter presents the fiscal and financial aspects of world economic and trade processes:

  • general government balance and government debt
  • the effect of changes in exchange rates on the real income of the national economy.

Impact of net exports on the balance of payments and changes in net external liabilities between 2010 and 2017.

Fiscal Council at the Hungarian Parliament, based on the research agreement KVT/51-1/2018
Project leader:
Katalin Nagy
Ágnes Nagy, Éva Palócz, Péter Vakhal