Preliminary study on macroeconomic and budgetary forecasting methodologies

At the request of the Fiscal Council of Hungary, we prepared a preliminary study on the development of a macromodel, which would strenghten the analytical capabilities of the institute as well as enable it to provide various forward looking analyzes, projections, bases and alternative scenarios. In our study, we proposed the main elements and main characteristics of a macromodel that can be used by the Fiscal Council. In addition to the model for short-term macroeconomic forecasting, we also analyzed how the large investment in Paks can be incorporated into the model we have developed.

	2023 Fact	2024 Forecast	2025 Forecast
GDP	-0.9%	0.5%	2.4%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-7.4%	-12.0%	2.0%
Industrial Production	-5.5%	-3.5%	2.5%
Gross Salaries	14.2%	13.4%	8.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.1%	4.6%	4.4%
Current+Capital Account**	1.2%	3.0%	2.3%
General Government**	-6.7%	-5.0%	-4.5 %
Consumer Price Index*	17.6%	3.7%	4.3%
MNB Base Rate***	10.75%	6.5%	6.0%
10-Year Yield***	5.86%	6.55%	6.0%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

03.12.2024. GDP slides in Q3 amid plummeting investments, expanding consumption and a negative turn in net exports

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was down 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP contracted by 0.7%.
On the expenditure side, the continued plunge in fixed capital formation was the main drag on growth. At the same time, some acceleration in growth was observed in household consumption and the change in inventories continued to add to growth. Final domestic use increased by 0.3% in Q3. But the growth contribution from net exports turned negative in the third quarter, due to the slowing decrease in import and the virtually unabated dip in export, and this was the decisive factor behind the overall decline in GDP.
On the production side, the services growth could not offset the negative effect of plummeting agricultural output, the deepening of industrial recession, and the shift from construction growth into decline.
In the first three quarters of 2024, GDP grew by a meager 0.6%.

30.10.2024. GDP: shocking growth numbers

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was down 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024, while the seasonally and working-day adjusted volume decreased by 0.7% in annual terms. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP fell by 0.7%, the worst growth outcome in the EU according to the data known so far. In the first three quarters of 2024, the volume of GDP edged up by 0.6%.
On the production side, the combined growth contribution of agriculture, industry and construction was about -2% in the third quarter, according to the CSO, while the ability of the services sector to offset the drag by the primary and secondary sectors was much more limited than expected. A deceleration in services raises the possibility that on the expenditure side, it was not just the continuing fall in investments that weighed on growth but private consumption also failed to gain additional momentum in the third quarter – it could even weaken instead, despite the strong real wage growth, possibly due to the contradictory trends on the labor market.

03.09.2024. GDP: amid consumption expanding further, the fall in investments accelerated in Q2

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 1.5% in the second quarter of 2024, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume climbed 1.3%. Compared to the previous quarter, by contrast, the GDP contracted by 0.2%.
On the expenditure side, the growth was still mainly supported by private consumption, which grew at a slightly accelerated rate of 4%. Fixed capital formation, on the other hand, fell by more than 15%, up from 7% in Q1. Nevertheless, overall final domestic use was up 0.7%, following six quarters of continuous decline, due to a surge in inventories. Despite this modest growth, import continued to fall, even if at a much slower pace. Thus the positive growth contribution of net exports weakened considerably in Q2.
On the production side, economic growth was still mostly driven by services. Industrial outputis still on a decrease and agricultural output started to contract as well.
On the expenditure side, the change in inventories will probably support growth, alongside consumption, but the growth contribution of net exports is likely to become negative in the second half of 2024.

More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Preliminary study on macroeconomic and budgetary forecasting methodologies

1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45.

telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,
faxszám: +36 1 309 2647

e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu

1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45.

telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,faxszám: +36 1 309 2647

e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu

telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,
faxszám: +36 1 309 2647