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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Business environment

from 1998

Hungarian Global Competitiveness Index

Since 1990, 3 times a year

Economic trends in Eastern Europe

Economic forecasts

2022
Fact
2023
Forecast
2024
Forecast
GDP 4.6% -0.5% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation 2.2% -4.0% 3.5%
Industrial Production 5.8% -1.0% 4.0%
Gross Salaries 17.4% 15.0% 8.0%
Unemployment Rate* 3.6% 4.1% 3.8%
Current+Capital Account** -6.2% -2.2% -0.5%
General Government** -6.2% -4.9% -3.9 %
Consumer Price Index* 14.5% 18.0% 5.8%
MNB Base Rate*** 13.0% 11.5% 7.0%
10-Year Yield*** 9.0% 6.5% 5.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

16.08.2023. GDP decline becomes steeper

According to the first estimate, the Hungarian GDP was down 2.4% on an annual basis in the second quarter. The seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate was 2.3%, which is the third-worst growth performance within the EU. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP declined again, for the fourth time in a row, at a rate of 0.3%.
On the production side, value added decreased in every sectors save agriculture, which means the services sector growth turned into the negative, too. In the light of the accelerating fall in private consumption, this was expected. On the expenditure side, the contraction in final domestic use probably became steeper, while net export have continued to contribute positively and substantially to economic growth.
After the average GDP decrease of 1.7% in the first half of the year, the chances that the contraction ofthe annual GDP can be avoided in 2023 are virtually nil.

01.06.2023. GDP: moderate consumption decline, favorable external trade trends

According to the second estimate, the unadjusted GDP was down 0.9% on an annual basis in the first quarter while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted volume decreased by 1.1%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP declined by 0.3%, a slight downward revision compared to the first estimate.
On the production side, a moderate decrease in industry and a steeper drop in construction was partially offset by a surprise year-on-year growth in the services sector. Despite the contraction of domestic demand, the majority of subsectors within services posted positive growth, including the double-digit growth rate in the health and social work sector.
On the expenditure side, the fall in private consumption was surprisingly mild (-2.5%). As a result, domestic final use decreased only by 4.9%, despite the more pronounced drop in fixed capital formation. Much of this decrease was canceled out by the favorable trends in the external trade of goods and services, particularly in the case of merchandise trade.

16.05.2023. GDP: moderate decline in the first quarter

According to the first estimate, the Hungarian GDP was down 0.9% on an annual basis in the first quarter. The seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate was 1.1%, which is the second-worst growth performance within the EU. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP declined by 0.2%.
Taking into account that the production data shows a 3% fall in gross industrial output, an 8% fall in construction output and a 9% fall in real retail trade turnover, the year-on-year decrease in GDP by merely 0.9% can be considered relatively mild. It seems that on the one hand, the CSO envisages a dramatic agricultural recovery after the implosion in 2022. On the other hand, several services sectors seem to make it through the steep fall of household demand with ease. The CSO communication highlights the growth of value added in the health sector. On the expenditures side, net export may have had a strong positive contribution that offset a significant part of the negative effect of falling domestic demand.
In light of the moderate pace of economic decline in the first quarter, the chances that annual GDP will avoid decreasing this year seem higher than before.

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