Articles and media

Published articles

Katalin Nagy-Éva Palócz (eds) (2020): Short-term effects of the COVID epidemic on the international and Hungarian Economy. In: National economy and public finances in the time of coronavirus pandemic. Analyses prepared for the Fiscal Council of Hungary in 2020. Published by the Hungarian Economic Association. pp. 99-106.

Media, conferences

2022.06.07. Péter Vakhal presented his paper ‘The evolution of Global Value Chains in the CEE region’ at the 2nd Visegrad conference in Budapest.

2021.12.10. Péter Vakhal presented his paper ‘Accounting global value chains in official statistics’ at the conference Global Value Chains and Multinational Corporations in Budapest.

2019.12.14. Péter Vakhal presented the paper ‘Accounting Global Value Chains and competitiveness: a challenge for official statistics’ at the 45th Annual Conference of EIBA in Leeds, UK.

	2022 Fact	2023 Forecast	2024 Forecast
GDP	4.6%	-0.5%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	0.1%	-9.8%	3.2%
Industrial Production	6.1%	-4.2%	4.0%
Gross Salaries	17.4%	15.0%	10.0%
Unemployment Rate*	3.6%	4.1%	3.8%
Current+Capital Account**	-6.2%	-0.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-6.2%	-5.2%	-3.7 %
Consumer Price Index*	14.5%	17.5%	4.5%
MNB Base Rate***	13.0%	11.5%	7.0%
10-Year Yield***	9.0%	6.5%	5.5%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

01.12.2023. GDP: decelerating consumption decline, continuing steep fall in investments

According to the second estimate, the unadjusted GDP was down 0.4% on an annual basis in the third quarter, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted volume decreased by 0.3%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP increased by 0.9%, following three quarters of decline and a one-quarter-long stagnation.
On the production side, the continuing moderate decrease in industry and a markedly milder decrease in construction was accompanied by a further dramatic acceleration in the agricultural growth rate (to about 88%. On the other hand, the rate of fall in the services sector slightly accelerated, instead of flattening out, mostly due to the steeper drop in transport and the professional, scientific, administrative and support services. According to the CSO, the output of the health sector continues to grow at a steep pace.
On the expenditure side, the fall in private consumption decelerated further (to -0.9%), while the negative contribution of the change in inventories moderated spectacularly. On the other hand, the year-on-year pace of decline in fixed capital accumulation still exceeds 15%. On balance, the pace of decrease in final domestic use moderated considerably. At the same time, net export continued to make a massive contribution to economic growth, due to the simultaneous steep decline in the export of goods (by about 5%) and the freefall in the import of goods (by about 10%).

14.11.2023. GDP: a partial U-turn

According to the first estimate, the seasonally and working day adjusted GDP was up 0.9% in the third quarter compared to the previous quarter, which technically means that the Hungarian economy is no longer in recession. On the other hand, the year-on-year decrease in GDP continued, albeit it decelerated to 0.4%. On average, the GDP contracted by 1.2% in the first three quarters of the year.
The decrease was primarily driven by industry and market services. On the expenditure side of GDP, the volume of final domestic use probably continued to contract drastically (by 5-6%), which was only partially offset by the positive contribution of net export, a result of the steep fall in imports.
In the light of the new data regarding the third quarter, the annual GDP is likely to decrease by 0.5% or slightly more in 2023.

16.08.2023. GDP decline becomes steeper

According to the first estimate, the Hungarian GDP was down 2.4% on an annual basis in the second quarter. The seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate was 2.3%, which is the third-worst growth performance within the EU. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP declined again, for the fourth time in a row, at a rate of 0.3%.
On the production side, value added decreased in every sectors save agriculture, which means the services sector growth turned into the negative, too. In the light of the accelerating fall in private consumption, this was expected. On the expenditure side, the contraction in final domestic use probably became steeper, while net export have continued to contribute positively and substantially to economic growth.
After the average GDP decrease of 1.7% in the first half of the year, the chances that the contraction ofthe annual GDP can be avoided in 2023 are virtually nil.

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1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45.

telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,
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e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu

Published articles

Media, conferences

1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45.

telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,faxszám: +36 1 309 2647

e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu

telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,
faxszám: +36 1 309 2647