In March 2021, the consumer price index rose to 3.7% after 2.7% in January and 3.1% in February, compared to the same months in previous year. The first quarter of the year was characterized by average inflation of 3.2%.
Unlike last year, in March it was not the rise in food prices that was outstanding (only 2.7% year-on-year), but that of alcoholic beverages and tobacco (10.3%), which is explained by the steady increase in excise duty. In the second place the so-called. other goods and fuels (7.1%), of which vehicle fuel increased by 17.7% (!) due to rising world oil prices. This is followed by the price index of durable consumer goods (3.8%), which can be explained by the permanent weakening of the forint exchange rate.
For the rest of the year, we need to prepare for further rising inflation until June, with a YoY price index well above 4% per month between April and June, even close to 5%. Between July and October, inflation may return below 4%, but may rise above 4% again in November-December. We forecast a price index of 4.8% for April 2021 and 4.2% for December. Annual inflation could be 3.8% in 2021, with upside risks.
