19.10.2021 Manufacturing sentiment index in October 2021
Based on the latest manufacturing sentiment survey, the majority of companies have recovered from the shock of the epidemic restrictions by the autumn of 2021. Production has returned to 2019 levels for 54% of respondents, although there are still 40% of companies where this is more likely to happen only next year.
A short summary in English is available here, together with the confidence and barometer figures.
28.09.2021. Study on the impacts of COVID-19 on competitiveness
Péter Vakhal presented our fresh study ‘COVID-19, sustainability and economic growth in competitiveness in Hungary’ commissioned by the Fiscal Council of the Hungarian Parliament, at a joint conference of the Council and the Hungarian Society of Economists.
The pandemic has set under way such economic and social developments that diverted national economies from their previous paths. Experts unanimously agree that economic growth relying on the rapid expansion of household consumption cannot be maintained in its current form. The study analyses the background and the impact of the crisis in five dimensions, all from the point of view of sustainability.
A short summary of the study in English is available here, with a link to the full text in Hungarian.
15.08.2021. Economic Trends 2021/2 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary published
The world economic situation improved in the first half of the year: both the growth indices and the confidence indicators showed an upward trend. Growing inflation and the possibility of monetary tightening poses a downward risk to growths expectations, along with a renewed assault of the pandemic.
The Hungarian economy is predicted to grow by 5-5.5% in 2021 after shrinking 5% last year. The second quarter of 2021 looks likely to bring high year-on-year growth at above 10%, due to a low base. In the second half of the year slower growth is expected. A fast-paced rise in inflation poses very high risk.
The full report is available here.
28.04.2021 First place of Kopint-Tárki in forecasters ranking
Kopint-Tárki’s forecasters, Zoltán Matheika and Éva Palócz, took first place in the MNB-Reuters forecasting competition!
In the competition, which is now being held for the 8th time, the participating forecasters (31 analysts in 2020) provide monthly forecasts on the expected development of the main macroeconomic, fiscal and monetary indicators of the Hungarian economy. The submitted monthly forecasts are evaluated by MNB-Reuters staff based on how close they were to the actual annual data.
We are proud that Kopint-Tárki’s colleagues have won the first prize in this excellent competition this year.
26.04.2021. Policy responses from governments and social partners to the COVID-19 pandemic
As part of a series on working life issues and the COVID-19 pandemic Eurofound has published the article “Policy responses from governments and social partners to the COVID-19 pandemic”. KOPINT-Tárki’s analyst scored through European responses to COVID-19, comparing measures aimed at cushioning the impact of the crisis on society, the economy and the labour market. In some countries, unemployment was allowed to run high while re-training and temporary benefits were extended, elsewhere, retaining jobs was a priority. The involvement of social partners in policy design fell by the wayside almost everywhere in the midst of the sudden crisis.
The article relied on Eurofound’s frequently updated database on government policies in EU member states during the pandemic, which can be found here: COVID-19 EU Policy watch.
25.04.2021 Economic Trends 2021/1 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary published
The world economic situation improved in the last quarter of last year, despite the new wave of the pandemic. The global short-term outlook is moderately positive, albeit not in every respect, mainly due to general fiscal stimulus. The Hungarian economy may expand by 4.5% in 2021 after last year’s 5% contraction. The performance of the economy will certainly be negative in the first quarter, but the second quarter will bring significant growth, largely due to the base effect. By the second half of the year, the state of the economy could consolidate, provided there is no further serious wave of the pandemic.
The report can be downloaded in English here.
16.12.2020 The World Economic Forum (WEF) published its 2020 report
The presentation outlines the findings of the reports written by Kopint-Tárki to the Fiscal Council in 2020 about the state of the global economy, international trade and the Hungarian economy, wich a focus on the economic consequences of the COVID pandemic. The studies highlight and closely analyze the fiscal impact of the crisis, the rapid growth of pubic debt ratios, both globally and in Hungary.
Link to conference and the presentations in Hungarian: https://www.mkt.hu/hu/2020/12/21/mkt-kt-konferencia-podcast-es-letoltheto-tanulmany
