In this study, we attempt to answer two questions. The first questions is whether the exchange rate of Forint is maintainable, i.e. whether the internal and external market equilibrium of the country may be achieved parallel with the current real exchange rate. The second question, in close connection with the above, concerns how the change in exchange rate policy influence the competitiveness of the products of the Hungarian manufacturing industry, the demand for Hungarian products which compete with exports and imports, and the development of the balance of payments.