Februárban megugrott az ipari termelés

Az előzetes adatok szerint 2021 februárjában az ipari termelés volumene váratlanul 1,9%-os (a munkanappal kiigazított adatok alapján 3,9%-os) növekedésbe fordult a januári közel 7%-os visszaesés után. Az előző hónaphoz viszonyítva a szezonálisan és munkanappal kiigazított termelési volumen 4,8%-kal emelkedett, és ezzel a havi volumen túlszárnyalta a Covid-válságot megelőző csúcspontot is.

Ez a felpattanás meglepő: mintha az ipar teljesen függetlenítette magát a globális logisztikai nehézségektől és a chiphiánytól. Úgy tűnik, jelenleg az ipart ellentétes irányba húzza a viszonylag kedvező keresletalakulás, illetőleg a kínálatoldali szűk keresztmetszetek.

Az első két hónap átlagában az ipari termelés 2,3%-kal volt alacsonyabb, mint az előző év azonos időszakában.

Mivel az ipart továbbra is béklyózzák a szállítási fennakadások – erre utal az áprilisi beszerzési menedzserindex alakulása is – a kiugró februári adatot a továbbiakban korrekció követheti. Ezzel együtt az idén dinamikus ipari növekedést várunk.

	2023 Fact	2024 Forecast	2025 Forecast
GDP	-0.9%	0.5%	2.0%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-7.4%	-12.0%	2.0%
Industrial Production	-5.5%	-3.5%	2.5%
Gross Salaries	14.2%	13.4%	8.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.1%	4.6%	4.4%
Current+Capital Account**	1.2%	3.0%	2.3%
General Government**	-6.7%	-5.0%	-4.5 %
Consumer Price Index*	17.6%	3.7%	5.0%
MNB Base Rate***	10.75%	6.5%	6.0%
10-Year Yield***	5.86%	6.55%	6.0%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

04.03.2025. GDP: Private consumption keeps expanding, amid a diminishing drag effect from the fall in investments

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume increased by 0.1%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP rose by 0.5%, a pace that surpassed the EU average. The annual average GDP growth was 0.5% in 2024.
There was no change of direction regarding the individual components in the fourth quarter, but the relative strength of their upward or downward effect shifted. On the expenditure side, the rate of the ongoing decline in fixed capital formation moderated by a couple of percentage points. Meanwhile, household consumption expenditure growth accelerated to 5.4% and actual household consumption kept expanding by 4.3%. The gap between the pace of consumption expenditure growth and the growth in real wage disbursements was less pronounced in the fourth quarter than before, due to the slowdown in the latter. Overall final domestic use increased in Q4 at a rate above 1%. Despite this growth, import continued to fall but at a slower pace than export, which is still facing severe demand constraints. As a result, the growth contribution from net exports remained negative.
On the production side, the return to growth was primarily driven by an acceleration in services growth, the only component that continued to contribute to economic growth, but an easing of the industrial recession also played a role.
Regarding the prospects for this year, we expect the GDP to grow by 2% but the downward risks are far from negligible.

30.01.2025. GDP: growth is back in Q4

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while the seasonally and working-day adjusted volume increased by 0.2% on an annual basis. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP rose by 0.5%, at a rate well above the EU average. In 2024, the average annual GDP growth reached 0.5%.
On the production side, only services contributed positively to economic growth in the fourth quarter, according to the CSO. The growth rate of services likely accelerated somewhat at the end of the year. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained additional momentum, despite contradictory labor market trends.
In 2025, the Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2.4%.

03.12.2024. GDP slides in Q3 amid plummeting investments, expanding consumption and a negative turn in net exports

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was down 0.8% in the third quarter of 2024. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP contracted by 0.7%.
On the expenditure side, the continued plunge in fixed capital formation was the main drag on growth. At the same time, some acceleration in growth was observed in household consumption and the change in inventories continued to add to growth. Final domestic use increased by 0.3% in Q3. But the growth contribution from net exports turned negative in the third quarter, due to the slowing decrease in import and the virtually unabated dip in export, and this was the decisive factor behind the overall decline in GDP.
On the production side, the services growth could not offset the negative effect of plummeting agricultural output, the deepening of industrial recession, and the shift from construction growth into decline.
In the first three quarters of 2024, GDP grew by a meager 0.6%.