Studies – Kopint-Tarki

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	2.0%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	4.7%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	1.3%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.2%	7.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.0%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	3.1%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.5%	4.5%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	7.3%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Studies

HRDOP Interventions related to lifelong learning

Developing the early childhood service system and assessing its role in compensating for disadvantage

Evaluation of REACT-EU-funded projects

Impacts of developments on improving the quality of life for people living with a disability

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in the first half of 2023

Impacts of changes in the world economic environment (including consequences of Brexit) on the EU economy and the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

Evaluation of employability support schemes for disadvantaged people involved in social inclusion measures

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2022 (in Hungarian)

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in the first half of 2022

Global economic trends and their impacts especially on the German economy, and consequences for Hungary’s economy and public finances

International economic trends in deteriorating global environment – consequences for Hungary

Evaluation of the implementation of Hungary’s Operative Programme of the Fund for European Aid to the most Deprived (FEAD)

Evaluation of measures to promote access to and retention in higher education

Evaluation of EU-funded educational programmes to reduce the rate of school dropouts without a qualification

Evaluation of health care and social public service development schemes

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in 2021

Impacts of a changing world-economic environment (including Brexit) on the EU economy and on the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in the first half of 2021 (in Hungarian)

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in 2020 (in Hungarian)

Assessment of labour market integration support schemes

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2019 and the first half of 2020 (in Hungarian)

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

International economic trends in deteriorating global environment – consequences for Hungary

Study on factors influencing Hungarian companies’ innovation activities

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