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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Projects

2018-2029: Eurofound: Network of national correspondents (NEC)

2025: Helping organisations prepare employees for AI in Romania, Hungary – Hope4AI project

2023-2024: Characteristics of labour and skills supply in different regions of Hungary – CORE project

2021-2022: “WorkTransitionCEE – Renewed social dialogue for the new world of work. Job transitions & digitalisation in two industrial sectors in CEE countries –Romania, Hungary, Slovakia”

2020-2021: Promoting a balance between labour supply and demand in the chemical and pharmaceutical industries (in Hungarian)

2019-2021: Bridging the AGE-GAP – Development of Social Partners’ Initiatives for Managing Age Related Challenges

2019-2021: Possible means to address labour shortages in the health and social sectors (in Hungarian)

1998-2020: Hungarian Global Competitiveness Index (WEF)

2016-2017: Best practices in reducing tax gaps in V4 countries

2014-2017: EURA-NET – Transnational Migration in Transition: Transformative Characteristics of Temporary Mobility of People

2013-2017: MOPACT – Mobilising the potential of active ageing in Europe

2013-2016: SPINTAN - Smart Public Intangibles

2012-2015: Improving statistical information system – Montenegro

2012-2013: Financial sector benchmarking system (FSBS). In the framework of PFS (partners for financial stability) project of the USAID

2009-2012: INDICSER Indicators for Evaluating International Performance in Service

2008-2011: ServPPIN: The Contribution of Public and Private Services to European Growth and Welfare, and the Role of Public-Private Innovation

Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 4.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 1.3% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.2% 7.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.8% 4.5%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.0% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 3.1% 3.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 5.5% 4.5%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 7.3% 6.8%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

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