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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Impresszum

KOPINT-TÁRKI Konjunktúrakutató Intézet Zrt.

1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45.

Telefon: +36 1 309 2695

Fax: +36 1 309 2647

E-mail: info[at]kopint-tarki.hu
Web: www.kopint-tarki.hu

Economic forecasts

2024
Fact
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 0.4% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -11.1% -4.8% 3.0%
Industrial Production -4.0% -1.7% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 13.2% 8.8% 9.5%
Unemployment Rate* 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.6% 2.0% 1.0%
General Government** -4.9% -4.8% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 3.8% 4.7% 3.9%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 6.5% 6.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.55% 7.0% 6.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

30.10.2025. GDP growth slightly accelerated in Q3

According to the first estimate, both the unadjusted and the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% year-on-year. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP slipped back into stagnation after modest growth in Q2. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.3% in the first three quarters of 2025.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic expansion, according to the CSO, while industrial and agricultural production continued to weigh on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have strengthened, amid the continuing negative growth contribution of investments and net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of – or slightly below – 0.5%, since a significant upturn in either industry or exports remains unlikely even in the last quarter of 2025.

02.09.2025. GDP: strong consumption growth, external position deteriorates

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP climbed 0.4%. On the expenditure side, final domestic use shifted into higher gear, supported by household consumption expenditures, but also the upturn in inventories and expanding transfers in kind.
However, the growth impact of domestic demand was virtually offset by the downward effect of net export, mostly due to the surge in the import of goods.
On the production side, the accelerating contraction in drought-stricken agriculture was offset by the upturn in construction. While industry keeps suffering, market services growth gathered some speed.
We currently expect the GDP to grow by approximately 0.5% this year.

30.07.2025. GDP expanded at a symbolic rate

According to the first estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, the unadjusted GDP volume was up 0.1% year-on-year, while the seasonally and working day adjusted volume climbed 0.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP expanded by 0.4%. On average, the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first half of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was down 0.1% over the same period.
On the production side, services were the main drivers of economic growth while industrial and agricultural production weighed on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gathered some steam, while investments likely continued to contract, amid the negative growth contribution of net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of 0.5%, since the prospect of a significant upturn in industry and exports is increasingly unlikely.

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1112 Budapest, Budaörsi út 45.
telefonszám: +36 1 309 2695,
faxszám: +36 1 309 2647
e-mail: info@kopint-tarki.hu
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