Konjunktúrajelentés 2026 tavasz

Megjelent a KOPINT-TÁRKI ‘A világgazdaság és a magyar gazdaság helyzete és kilátásai 2026 tavaszán – 2026/1’ című kiadványa. A jelentés letölthető innen, az összefoglaló pedig innen. A sajtótájékoztató prezentáció letölthető innen.

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	2.0%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	4.7%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	1.3%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.2%	7.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.0%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	3.5%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.5%	4.5%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	7.3%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

02.12.2025. GDP: weakening consumption growth, deteriorating external position, change in inventories turns the tables

The second estimate confirms that both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% in Q3 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the GDP remained flat. The overall growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.3%.
On the expenditure side, most components actually deteriorated, including private and public consumption growth rates. The net external trade position also worsened spectacularly. A dramatic turn in the change in inventories was the only reason the year-on-year rate of GDP – and final domestic use – growth accelerated in the third quarter.
On the production side, the contraction in agriculture and industry moderated in the third quarter, while services growth accelerated minimally – due to government services.
We currently expect the GDP to grow at a rate below 0.5% this year.

03.03.2026. GDP: accelerating consumption growth, no improvement in external trade

According to the second estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted year-on-year rate of 0.8% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.2%. On an annual average, GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025.
Some improvement was observed in most components of domestic demand, leading to a respectable growth rate of 3.8% in final domestic use.
On the other hand, net export dragged down economic growth even more than in the third quarter, due to an uptick in the growth in imports of both goods and services.
On the production side, the contraction in weather-stricken agriculture moderated significantly, industrial output continued to decline, while construction activity picked up. Services growth, however, lost momentum, despite the slight uptick in consumption growth.
Due to the absence of conditions for more spectacular recovery, a GDP growth rate of 2% can be seen as a best-case scenario for 2026.

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Konjunktúrajelentés 2026 tavasz

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