Manufacturing index in Q3

The barometer in the 2025 October survey points to stagnation in the third quarter. The confidence index has decreased since the last report, though within the margin of error, hinting at the danger of another downturn. Sentiment is improving among larger companies, but not enough to fuel strong recruitment intentions. Among the factors hampering production, the most serious is still a lack of demand, as has been the case for the past three years.

Read the summary in English here.

	2024 Fact	2025 Forecast	2026 Forecast
GDP	0.6%	0.3%	2.0%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-9.9%	-4.4%	2.5%
Industrial Production	-4.1%	-3.0%	2.3%
Gross Salaries	13.2%	9.1%	9.3%
Unemployment Rate*	4.5%	4.4%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	1.8%	2.0%	1.0%
General Government**	-5.0%	-4.9%	-5.2%
Consumer Price Index*	3.7%	4.4%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	6.5%	6.0%
10-Year Yield***	6.55%	6.79%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

02.12.2025. GDP: weakening consumption growth, deteriorating external position, change in inventories turns the tables

The second estimate confirms that both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% in Q3 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the GDP remained flat. The overall growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.3%.
On the expenditure side, most components actually deteriorated, including private and public consumption growth rates. The net external trade position also worsened spectacularly. A dramatic turn in the change in inventories was the only reason the year-on-year rate of GDP – and final domestic use – growth accelerated in the third quarter.
On the production side, the contraction in agriculture and industry moderated in the third quarter, while services growth accelerated minimally – due to government services.
We currently expect the GDP to grow at a rate below 0.5% this year.

30.10.2025. GDP growth slightly accelerated in Q3

According to the first estimate, both the unadjusted and the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% year-on-year. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP slipped back into stagnation after modest growth in Q2. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.3% in the first three quarters of 2025.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic expansion, according to the CSO, while industrial and agricultural production continued to weigh on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have strengthened, amid the continuing negative growth contribution of investments and net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of – or slightly below – 0.5%, since a significant upturn in either industry or exports remains unlikely even in the last quarter of 2025.

02.09.2025. GDP: strong consumption growth, external position deteriorates

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP climbed 0.4%. On the expenditure side, final domestic use shifted into higher gear, supported by household consumption expenditures, but also the upturn in inventories and expanding transfers in kind.
However, the growth impact of domestic demand was virtually offset by the downward effect of net export, mostly due to the surge in the import of goods.
On the production side, the accelerating contraction in drought-stricken agriculture was offset by the upturn in construction. While industry keeps suffering, market services growth gathered some speed.
We currently expect the GDP to grow by approximately 0.5% this year.

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Manufacturing index in Q3

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