The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2024, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume increased by 0.1%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP rose by 0.5%, a pace that surpassed the EU average. The annual average GDP growth was 0.5% in 2024.
There was no change of direction regarding the individual components in the fourth quarter, but the relative strength of their upward or downward effect shifted. On the expenditure side, the rate of the ongoing decline in fixed capital formation moderated by a couple of percentage points. Meanwhile, household consumption expenditure growth accelerated to 5.4% and actual household consumption kept expanding by 4.3%. The gap between the pace of consumption expenditure growth and the growth in real wage disbursements was less pronounced in the fourth quarter than before, due to the slowdown in the latter. Overall final domestic use increased in Q4 at a rate above 1%. Despite this growth, import continued to fall but at a slower pace than export, which is still facing severe demand constraints. As a result, the growth contribution from net exports remained negative.
On the production side, the return to growth was primarily driven by an acceleration in services growth, the only component that continued to contribute to economic growth, but an easing of the industrial recession also played a role.
Regarding the prospects for this year, we expect the GDP to grow by 2% but the downward risks are far from negligible.
