The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP stagnated on an annual basis in the fourth quarter of 2023 while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume was up 0.5%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP stagnated as well, which is barely below the EU-average growth rate of 0.1%. In 2023 as a whole, the GDP contracted by 0.9%.
On the expenditure side, the stagnation was primarily due to the drastic contraction in inventories, which had a negative contribution of more than 3 percentage points to GDP growth. Private consumption expanded by 1% (even though private consumption expenditures continued to decrease), while the decline in fixed capital formation moderated to merely 3% in the last quarter. Overall final domestic use was down 4.1%. The positive growth contribution of net export could offset the downward effect of shrinking domestic demand, but this positive growth contribution was only due to the digit freefall in merchandise imports which surpassed the fourth-quarter decline in merchandise export. On the production side, similarly to the previous quarters, only agriculture posted positive growth in Q4.
In light of the data on the fourth quarter, industry poses the main downside risk to economic growth in 2024 on the production side, while primarily net export may undermine the growth outlook on the expenditure side.