Discussion papers – Page 2

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	2.0%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	4.7%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	1.3%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.2%	7.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.0%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	3.1%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.5%	4.5%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	7.3%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Discussion papers

No. 47, András Köves (1997): Towards sustainable growth?

No. 46, Péter Vince (1997): Privatisation and regulation: restructuring and conflicts in the Hungarian electricity supply industry

No. 45, László Csaba (1997): An Eastern enlargement of the EU: burden or blessing?

No. 44, László Szamuely (1997): The social costs of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe

No. 43, László Csaba (1996): Enlargement of the EU: dynamics and problems

No. 42, Zsuzsa Borszéki (1996): From quotas to hard currency: company views on the post-Soviet barter period at the beginning of the 1990s

No. 41, Imre Bóc, Mátyás Klauber (1996): The weight of black trade and black services in the national economy

No. 40, Zoltán Ákos Kovács (1996): Recent evidence and prospects for growth in Central-Eastern Europe

No. 39, László Csaba (1996): Hungary’s trade policy and trade régime: from neoprotectionism to liberalism or vica versa?

No. 38, László Csaba (1996): Hungary’s trade policy between the Uruguay Round and EU accession

No. 37, Thomas Linne (1995): Steps for a monetary integration of the economies in Central and Eastern Europe into the IMS, ERM and EU; Klaus Werner: Structural changes in trade relations between the European Union and Central and Eastern Europe since 1991

No. 36, Ágnes Csermely (1995): Changing trade pattern in Hungary; Zoltán Ákos Kovács: Changing patterns of trade between Hungary and the European Community (Union) a retrospective analysis 1989-1994

No. 34, László Csaba (1995): The political economy of the reform strategy: China and Eastern Europe compared

No. 33, Giel A. W. Verbeeck (1995): The financial sector in Central and Eastern Europe: three questions and three answers

No. 32, László Csaba (1995): Privatisation and distribution in Central and Eastern Europe: theory from evidence

No. 31, Judit Hamar (1995): Industrial policy, structure and efficiency in the Hungarian manufacturing industry (transitional crisis and restructuring)

No. 30, Gábor Oblath (1995): Eastern Europe’s trade performance on western markets and Eastern Europe as a market for western exports: a review of developments between 1990 and 1993

No. 29, László Csaba (1995): Transition and/or modernisation in Eastern Europe

No. 28, András Köves (1995): From “great leaps forward” to normalcy: some issues in transitional policies in Eastern Europe

No. 27, László G. Tóth (1994): Trade among the CEFTA contries in the mid-1990s: how to promote the expansion of intra-regional trade flows in Central Europe (special issue)

No. 26, László Antal, Tamás Tétényi (1994): The development of the Hungarian banking system

No. 24, András Köves, Gábor Oblath (1994): The regional role of the former Soviet Union and the CMEA: a net assesment

No. 23, Erzsébet Gém (1994): The main features of the present Hungarian tax system

No. 22, László Csaba (1994): Hungary and the IMF: the experience of a cordial discord

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