Discussion papers – Kopint-Tarki

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	2.0%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	4.7%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	1.3%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.2%	7.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.0%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	3.1%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.5%	4.5%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	7.3%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Discussion papers

No. 74, Éva Palócz, Tamás Gebei, Péter Vakhal, Zoltán Matheika (2020): Study on Factors influencing Hungarian Companies’ innovation capacity

No. 73, Katalin Nagy, Nóra Serfőző (2017): Differences of economic development and ways of cooperation in the Slovak-Hungarian cross border region

No. 72, Antónia Hüttl, Ágnes Nagy (2016): Organisational capital and hospital performance in Hungary

No. 71, Éva Palócz, Zoltán Matheika, Péter Vakhal (2016): Structural changes in public expenditures in the European Union since 2008 – with special regard to new member states

No. 70, Zoltán Ádám (2016): The fight against unemployment – the case of Hungary

No. 69, Katalin Nagy (2005): Thoughts on Hungarian industrial policy–adaptation and pathfinding

No. 68, Éva Palócz (2005): Business services in Hungary

No. 67, András Köves (2004): Russian economic growth and development – some new and old dilemmas

No. 66, Zoltán Ákos Kovács (2004): Is there any convergence in trade structures following EU accession? Some trade related aspects of enlargement

No. 65, Judit Hamar (2004): Productivity gap and restructuring – mapping the technology structure of branch plants and technology integration of CEECs

No. 64, András Köves (2004): Perspectives for economic cooperation between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the light of the enlargement of the European Union

No. 63, Judit Hamar (2001): Dual economy, the role of the MNC-s in Hungary and the EU-accession

No. 62, Tamás Réti (2000): Role of regional integration initiatives in trade liberalisation of transition economies

No. 61, András Köves (2000): Some aspects of medium-term development in Central and Eastern Europe

No. 60, János Gács (2000): Alternative scenarios for Hungary’s accession and macroeconomic development

No. 59, Judit Hamar (1999): Regional effects of FDI-inflows in Hungary

No. 58, Gábor Oblath, András Sebestyén (1999): Interpreting and measuring seigniorage: Hungary’s case

No. 57, László Csaba (1998): Transformation as a subject of economic theory

No. 56, Ágnes Hárs (1998): Labour migration and the Eastern enlargement of the European Union – lessons from the Hungarian experiences

No. 55, Julius Horváth (1998): Currency crisis in the Czech Republic in May 1997

No. 54, László Csaba, András Köves, Gábor Oblath, Iván Schweitzer, László Szamuely (1998): Summary report of a Kopint-Datorg project: maturity and tasks of Hungarian industry in the context of accession to the EU

No. 51-53, László Csaba, András Köves, Gábor Oblath, Iván Schweitzer, László Szamuely (1998): Short-term prospects for the international economy

No. 50, Katharina Müller (1998): The “new pension orthodoxy” and beyond: transforming old age security in Central Europe

No. 49, Gábor Oblath (1997): Capital inflows to Hungary in 1995-1996, composition, effects and policy responses

No. 48, László Csaba (1997): Central Europe on the way to EU accession: a state of art report

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