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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Discussion papers

No. 74, Éva Palócz, Tamás Gebei, Péter Vakhal, Zoltán Matheika (2020): Study on Factors influencing Hungarian Companies’ innovation capacity

No. 73, Katalin Nagy, Nóra Serfőző (2017): Differences of economic development and ways of cooperation in the Slovak-Hungarian cross border region

No. 72, Antónia Hüttl, Ágnes Nagy (2016): Organisational capital and hospital performance in Hungary

No. 71, Éva Palócz, Zoltán Matheika, Péter Vakhal (2016): Structural changes in public expenditures in the European Union since 2008 – with special regard to new member states

No. 70, Zoltán Ádám (2016): The fight against unemployment – the case of Hungary

No. 69, Katalin Nagy (2005): Thoughts on Hungarian industrial policy–adaptation and pathfinding

No. 68, Éva Palócz (2005): Business services in Hungary

No. 67, András Köves (2004): Russian economic growth and development – some new and old dilemmas

No. 66, Zoltán Ákos Kovács (2004): Is there any convergence in trade structures following EU accession? Some trade related aspects of enlargement

No. 65, Judit Hamar (2004): Productivity gap and restructuring – mapping the technology structure of branch plants and technology integration of CEECs

No. 64, András Köves (2004): Perspectives for economic cooperation between Russia and the countries of Central and Eastern Europe in the light of the enlargement of the European Union

No. 63, Judit Hamar (2001): Dual economy, the role of the MNC-s in Hungary and the EU-accession

No. 62, Tamás Réti (2000): Role of regional integration initiatives in trade liberalisation of transition economies

No. 61, András Köves (2000): Some aspects of medium-term development in Central and Eastern Europe

No. 60, János Gács (2000): Alternative scenarios for Hungary’s accession and macroeconomic development

No. 59, Judit Hamar (1999): Regional effects of FDI-inflows in Hungary

No. 58, Gábor Oblath, András Sebestyén (1999): Interpreting and measuring seigniorage: Hungary’s case

No. 57, László Csaba (1998): Transformation as a subject of economic theory

No. 56, Ágnes Hárs (1998): Labour migration and the Eastern enlargement of the European Union – lessons from the Hungarian experiences

No. 55, Julius Horváth (1998): Currency crisis in the Czech Republic in May 1997

No. 54, László Csaba, András Köves, Gábor Oblath, Iván Schweitzer, László Szamuely (1998): Summary report of a Kopint-Datorg project: maturity and tasks of Hungarian industry in the context of accession to the EU

No. 51-53, László Csaba, András Köves, Gábor Oblath, Iván Schweitzer, László Szamuely (1998): Short-term prospects for the international economy

No. 50, Katharina Müller (1998): The “new pension orthodoxy” and beyond: transforming old age security in Central Europe

No. 49, Gábor Oblath (1997): Capital inflows to Hungary in 1995-1996, composition, effects and policy responses

No. 48, László Csaba (1997): Central Europe on the way to EU accession: a state of art report

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Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 3.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 2.3% 3.5%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.5% 6.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.6% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.5% -5.0%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 2.0% 2.6%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 4.75% 3.75%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 5.0 4.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

01.09.2026. GDP: decelerating consumption growth, investments keep falling in Q2

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.5%. Within the EU, the Hungarian growth performance was close to the median.
Private consumption decelerated somewhat, as expected. The reacceleration of the decline in fixed capital formation was unexpected, however. At the same time, the contribution of the changes in inventories to growth became even more pronounced. Final domestic use expanded at a respectable pace of 5%.
As for external trade, the export of goods expanded in the second quarter, after almost three years of uninterrupted decline. As a result, the downward effect of net exports on GDP growth became less extreme than in the previous quarter.
On the production side, industrial growth gathered some momentum, which offset the slowdown in services growth and the steep fall in drought-stricken agriculture.
Provided that investments start expanding in the second half of the year, due to the renewed inflow of EU funds and the changed institutional background, the GDP growth rate might reach 2% in 2026.

30.07.2026. GDP: modest growth continues in Q2

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 1.7%, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP expanded by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.4%. The second-quarter growth performance somewhat fell short of the average of analysts’ expectations.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, with industry contributing positively and agriculture contributing negatively to GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably continued to severely weigh on growth.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki still expects GDP to expand at a rate of around 2%. On the other hand, the mounting shocks generated by the Iran war may upend the baseline growth scenario.

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

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