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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Discussion papers

No. 26, László Antal, Tamás Tétényi (1994): The development of the Hungarian banking system

No. 24, András Köves, Gábor Oblath (1994): The regional role of the former Soviet Union and the CMEA: a net assesment

No. 23, Erzsébet Gém (1994): The main features of the present Hungarian tax system

No. 22, László Csaba (1994): Hungary and the IMF: the experience of a cordial discord

No. 21, Gulshan Sachdeva (1994): Privatization: an interpretative endeavor

No. 20, Ágnes Csermely (1993): The impact of exchange rate policy on the development of industrial competitiveness

No. 19, Péter Vince (1993): Stages of state involvement: dilemmas and turningpoints for privatization in Hungary

Pages: 1 2 3 4

Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 3.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 2.3% 3.5%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.5% 6.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.6% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.5% -5.0%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 2.0% 2.6%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 4.75% 3.75%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 5.0 4.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

01.09.2026. GDP: decelerating consumption growth, investments keep falling in Q2

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.5%. Within the EU, the Hungarian growth performance was close to the median.
Private consumption decelerated somewhat, as expected. The reacceleration of the decline in fixed capital formation was unexpected, however. At the same time, the contribution of the changes in inventories to growth became even more pronounced. Final domestic use expanded at a respectable pace of 5%.
As for external trade, the export of goods expanded in the second quarter, after almost three years of uninterrupted decline. As a result, the downward effect of net exports on GDP growth became less extreme than in the previous quarter.
On the production side, industrial growth gathered some momentum, which offset the slowdown in services growth and the steep fall in drought-stricken agriculture.
Provided that investments start expanding in the second half of the year, due to the renewed inflow of EU funds and the changed institutional background, the GDP growth rate might reach 2% in 2026.

30.07.2026. GDP: modest growth continues in Q2

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 1.7%, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP expanded by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.4%. The second-quarter growth performance somewhat fell short of the average of analysts’ expectations.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, with industry contributing positively and agriculture contributing negatively to GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably continued to severely weigh on growth.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki still expects GDP to expand at a rate of around 2%. On the other hand, the mounting shocks generated by the Iran war may upend the baseline growth scenario.

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

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