Kopint-Tarki – Page 2 – Kopint Tárki Konjunktúrakutató Intézet

MNB-Reuters forecasting competition awards

2026.05.20

We are happy to announce that KOPINT-TÁRKI has participated in the MNB-Reuters forecasting competition, where Éva Palócz and Zoltán Matheika took second place. Congratulations!

New Eurofound NEC network 2026-2030

2026.04.22

Eurofound NEC contract renewed

2026.02.24

The KOPINT-TÁRKI Institute has been a member of Eurofound’s Network of Correspondents (NEC) for Hungary since 2018. Now the contract has been renewed for the third cycle. Reports, working papers and case studies for Eurofound involve many subjects, most recently the following reports were published with KOPINT-TÁRKI contributions/authorship:
Hárs, Ágnes (2025) Hungary: Developments in working life 2024
Bogó, Rozália. – Eurofound (2025) Digitalisation, skills development and digital innovation in SMEs – Country report: Hungary
Krokovay, Nóra – Eurofound. (2025) Hungary: Non-governmental efforts to prepare for gender pay transparency requirements. In: The practical implementation of the work of equal value principle: Case studies
Eurofound (2025), Minimum wages in 2025: Annual review, Minimum wages in the EU series, Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg.

More on the work with Eurofound NEC here.

Economic Trends 2025/3

2025.11.03

The third and last issue of Economic Trends for 2025 has been published. The complete series can be found here:
Economic Trends in Eastern Europe – Kopint-Tarki

New Eurofound publications with KOPINT-TÁRKI contribution

2025.03.26

Eurofound published three studies with contributions from KOPINT-TÁRKI researchers recently: on the labour-market situation of older workers, on European Semester and RRF-related policies, and on the complex problems of home carers. KOPINT-TÁRKI has been a member of the Eurofound correspondents’ network NEC since 2018; you can read more about this work and all publications here.

All posts

	2025 Fact	2026 Forecast	2027 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	2.0%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-2.8%	4.7%	5.5%
Industrial Production	-3.2%	1.3%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	9.0%	9.2%	7.0%
Unemployment Rate*	4.4%	4.8%	4.5%
Current+Capital Account**	2.1%	1.5%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.7%	-6.0%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	4.4%	3.1%	3.7%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	5.5%	4.5%
10-Year Yield***	6.79%	7.3%	6.8%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

MNB-Reuters forecasting competition awards

New Eurofound NEC network 2026-2030

Eurofound NEC contract renewed

Economic Trends 2025/3

New Eurofound publications with KOPINT-TÁRKI contribution

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