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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: News

Economic Trends 2024/2 out now

Manufacturing sentiment index in summer 2024

FocusEconomics inflation forecast award

Economic Trends 2024/1 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary

Eurofound report on the social impact of migration

Forecast award winners again in 2023

Deepest condolences

Happy New Year!

Economic Trends 2023/3 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary

Economic Trends 2023/2 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary out

Economic Trends 2023/1 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary

Hungary: Developments in Working Life 2022

KOPINT-Tárki wins Consensus Forecast award

Manufacturing sentiment index in spring 2023

Eurofound publishes prelim report on minimum wages

Fiscal Council publishes summary of 2022 studies

Obituary

Economic Trends 2022/3 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary

Manufacturing sentiment index in October 2022

Economic Trends 2022/2 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary out

Eurofound publishes Annual Review of Minimum Wages 2022

Economic Trends 2022/1 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary published

E-book: Emerging European Economies after the pandemic

Eurofound: Minimum wages in 2022

Macroeconomics, public finances, COVID-19

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Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 4.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 1.3% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.2% 7.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.8% 4.5%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.0% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 3.1% 3.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 5.5% 4.5%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 7.3% 6.8%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

30.04.2026. GDP growth gained momentum in Q1

According to the first estimate, both unadjusted GDP and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 1.7% in the first quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.8%. The overall growth performance in the first quarter exceeded expectations by a significant margin.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, but this quarter also saw a positive contribution from industry. On the expenditure side, private consumption certainly remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably weighed on growth even more than before.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%. However, shocks generated by the Iran war may override the baseline growth scenario.

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

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