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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Macroeconomy

No. 74, Éva Palócz, Tamás Gebei, Péter Vakhal, Zoltán Matheika (2020): Study on Factors influencing Hungarian Companies’ innovation capacity

No. 72, Antónia Hüttl, Ágnes Nagy (2016): Organisational capital and hospital performance in Hungary

No. 71, Éva Palócz, Zoltán Matheika, Péter Vakhal (2016): Structural changes in public expenditures in the European Union since 2008 – with special regard to new member states

No. 69, Katalin Nagy (2005): Thoughts on Hungarian industrial policy–adaptation and pathfinding

No. 65, Judit Hamar (2004): Productivity gap and restructuring – mapping the technology structure of branch plants and technology integration of CEECs

No. 63, Judit Hamar (2001): Dual economy, the role of the MNC-s in Hungary and the EU-accession

No. 62, Tamás Réti (2000): Role of regional integration initiatives in trade liberalisation of transition economies

No. 60, János Gács (2000): Alternative scenarios for Hungary’s accession and macroeconomic development

No. 59, Judit Hamar (1999): Regional effects of FDI-inflows in Hungary

No. 58, Gábor Oblath, András Sebestyén (1999): Interpreting and measuring seigniorage: Hungary’s case

No. 57, László Csaba (1998): Transformation as a subject of economic theory

No. 55, Julius Horváth (1998): Currency crisis in the Czech Republic in May 1997

No. 54, László Csaba, András Köves, Gábor Oblath, Iván Schweitzer, László Szamuely (1998): Summary report of a Kopint-Datorg project: maturity and tasks of Hungarian industry in the context of accession to the EU

No. 50, Katharina Müller (1998): The “new pension orthodoxy” and beyond: transforming old age security in Central Europe

No. 49, Gábor Oblath (1997): Capital inflows to Hungary in 1995-1996, composition, effects and policy responses

No. 48, László Csaba (1997): Central Europe on the way to EU accession: a state of art report

No. 47, András Köves (1997): Towards sustainable growth?

No. 46, Péter Vince (1997): Privatisation and regulation: restructuring and conflicts in the Hungarian electricity supply industry

No. 45, László Csaba (1997): An Eastern enlargement of the EU: burden or blessing?

No. 44, László Szamuely (1997): The social costs of transformation in Central and Eastern Europe

No. 43, László Csaba (1996): Enlargement of the EU: dynamics and problems

No. 41, Imre Bóc, Mátyás Klauber (1996): The weight of black trade and black services in the national economy

No. 40, Zoltán Ákos Kovács (1996): Recent evidence and prospects for growth in Central-Eastern Europe

No. 39, László Csaba (1996): Hungary’s trade policy and trade régime: from neoprotectionism to liberalism or vica versa?

No. 38, László Csaba (1996): Hungary’s trade policy between the Uruguay Round and EU accession

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Economic forecasts

2024
Fact
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
GDP 0.6% 0.4% 2.0%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -9.9% -2.2% 2.5%
Industrial Production -4.1% -3.0% 2.3%
Gross Salaries 13.2% 9.0% 9.3%
Unemployment Rate* 4.5% 4.4% 4.5%
Current+Capital Account** 1.8% 2.0% 1.0%
General Government** -5.0% -4.9% -5.2%
Consumer Price Index* 3.7% 4.4% 3.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 6.5% 6.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.55% 6.79% 6.8%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

02.12.2025. GDP: weakening consumption growth, deteriorating external position, change in inventories turns the tables

The second estimate confirms that both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% in Q3 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the GDP remained flat. The overall growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.3%.
On the expenditure side, most components actually deteriorated, including private and public consumption growth rates. The net external trade position also worsened spectacularly. A dramatic turn in the change in inventories was the only reason the year-on-year rate of GDP – and final domestic use – growth accelerated in the third quarter.
On the production side, the contraction in agriculture and industry moderated in the third quarter, while services growth accelerated minimally – due to government services.
We currently expect the GDP to grow at a rate below 0.5% this year.

03.03.2026. GDP: accelerating consumption growth, no improvement in external trade

According to the second estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted year-on-year rate of 0.8% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.2%. On an annual average, GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025.
Some improvement was observed in most components of domestic demand, leading to a respectable growth rate of 3.8% in final domestic use.
On the other hand, net export dragged down economic growth even more than in the third quarter, due to an uptick in the growth in imports of both goods and services.
On the production side, the contraction in weather-stricken agriculture moderated significantly, industrial output continued to decline, while construction activity picked up. Services growth, however, lost momentum, despite the slight uptick in consumption growth.
Due to the absence of conditions for more spectacular recovery, a GDP growth rate of 2% can be seen as a best-case scenario for 2026.

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