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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Macroeconomy

No. 37, Thomas Linne (1995): Steps for a monetary integration of the economies in Central and Eastern Europe into the IMS, ERM and EU; Klaus Werner: Structural changes in trade relations between the European Union and Central and Eastern Europe since 1991

No. 36, Ágnes Csermely (1995): Changing trade pattern in Hungary; Zoltán Ákos Kovács: Changing patterns of trade between Hungary and the European Community (Union) a retrospective analysis 1989-1994

No. 35, András Köves (1995): Thesen zur ungarischen Beitrittspolitik und zur Osterweiterung der Europäischen Union; Hubert Gabrisch: Die Haltung der EU gegenüber Mittel- und Osteuropa nach dem Kopenhagener Gipfel und vor der Überprüfung des Maastricht-Vertrages; Monika Hartmann: Notwendigkeit und Chancen einer Reform der GAP vor dem Hintergrund einer EU-Osterweiterung

No. 32, László Csaba (1995): Privatisation and distribution in Central and Eastern Europe: theory from evidence

No. 31, Judit Hamar (1995): Industrial policy, structure and efficiency in the Hungarian manufacturing industry (transitional crisis and restructuring)

No. 29, László Csaba (1995): Transition and/or modernisation in Eastern Europe

No. 23, Erzsébet Gém (1994): The main features of the present Hungarian tax system

No. 22, László Csaba (1994): Hungary and the IMF: the experience of a cordial discord

No. 21, Gulshan Sachdeva (1994): Privatization: an interpretative endeavor

No. 20, Ágnes Csermely (1993): The impact of exchange rate policy on the development of industrial competitiveness

No. 19, Péter Vince (1993): Stages of state involvement: dilemmas and turningpoints for privatization in Hungary

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Economic forecasts

2024
Fact
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
GDP 0.6% 0.4% 2.0%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -9.9% -2.2% 2.5%
Industrial Production -4.1% -3.0% 2.3%
Gross Salaries 13.2% 9.0% 9.3%
Unemployment Rate* 4.5% 4.4% 4.5%
Current+Capital Account** 1.8% 2.0% 1.0%
General Government** -5.0% -4.9% -5.2%
Consumer Price Index* 3.7% 4.4% 3.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 6.5% 6.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.55% 6.79% 6.8%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

30.01.2026. GDP grew only at a symbolic pace again in Q4

According to the first estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted rate of 0.7% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.5% in the last quarter of 2025. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.2% after stagnating in Q3. On average, the unadjusted GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.3% over the previous year.
On the production side, services remained the main drivers of economic growth while construction also supported economic expansion to a degree. Industrial production continued to weigh on GDP growth. Services growth may have noticeably accelerated. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gained momentum but also net export probably dragged down growth more severely than before.
As for this year, Kopint-Tárki expects GDP to expand at a modest rate of 2%.

02.12.2025. GDP: weakening consumption growth, deteriorating external position, change in inventories turns the tables

The second estimate confirms that both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was up 0.6% in Q3 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, however, the GDP remained flat. The overall growth rate in the first three quarters was 0.3%.
On the expenditure side, most components actually deteriorated, including private and public consumption growth rates. The net external trade position also worsened spectacularly. A dramatic turn in the change in inventories was the only reason the year-on-year rate of GDP – and final domestic use – growth accelerated in the third quarter.
On the production side, the contraction in agriculture and industry moderated in the third quarter, while services growth accelerated minimally – due to government services.
We currently expect the GDP to grow at a rate below 0.5% this year.

03.03.2026. GDP: accelerating consumption growth, no improvement in external trade

According to the second estimate, GDP grew by an unadjusted year-on-year rate of 0.8% and a seasonally and calendar-adjusted rate of 0.6% in the fourth quarter of 2025. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.2%. On an annual average, GDP climbed 0.4% in 2025.
Some improvement was observed in most components of domestic demand, leading to a respectable growth rate of 3.8% in final domestic use.
On the other hand, net export dragged down economic growth even more than in the third quarter, due to an uptick in the growth in imports of both goods and services.
On the production side, the contraction in weather-stricken agriculture moderated significantly, industrial output continued to decline, while construction activity picked up. Services growth, however, lost momentum, despite the slight uptick in consumption growth.
Due to the absence of conditions for more spectacular recovery, a GDP growth rate of 2% can be seen as a best-case scenario for 2026.

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