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Economic Trends 2025/2 out nowSeptember 18, 2025
Manufacturing index in summerAugust 15, 2025
Chinese researcher visitJune 11, 2025
Manufacturing sentiment index in spring 2025June 10, 2025
AIECE report by KOPINT-TÁRKI expertsMay 22, 2025
Economic Trends 2025/1 publishedMay 17, 2025
Eurofound NEC Meeting in DublinApril 17, 2025
New Eurofound publications with KOPINT-TÁRKI contributionMarch 26, 2025
Season’s greetings!December 23, 2024
Eurofound in 2024December 20, 2024
Joining the TURI networkNovember 7, 2024
Economic Trends 2024/3November 4, 2024
Eurofound report on labour shortage – Hungary’s caseSeptember 11, 2024
Economic Trends 2024/2 out nowAugust 1, 2024
Manufacturing sentiment index in summer 2024July 18, 2024
FocusEconomics inflation forecast awardMay 30, 2024
Economic Trends 2024/1 report on Eastern Europe and HungaryMay 13, 2024
Eurofound report on the social impact of migrationApril 2, 2024
Forecast award winners again in 2023March 28, 2024
Deepest condolencesJanuary 20, 2024
Happy New Year!December 31, 2023
Economic Trends 2023/3 report on Eastern Europe and HungaryDecember 1, 2023
Economic Trends 2023/2 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary outAugust 17, 2023
Economic Trends 2023/1 report on Eastern Europe and HungaryJune 1, 2023
Hungary: Developments in Working Life 2022May 16, 2023
KOPINT-Tárki wins Consensus Forecast awardApril 26, 2023
Manufacturing sentiment index in spring 2023April 10, 2023
Eurofound publishes prelim report on minimum wagesJanuary 23, 2023
Fiscal Council publishes summary of 2022 studiesDecember 23, 2022
ObituaryDecember 7, 2022
Economic Trends 2022/3 report on Eastern Europe and HungaryNovember 30, 2022
Manufacturing sentiment index in October 2022November 4, 2022
Economic Trends 2022/2 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary outSeptember 1, 2022
Eurofound publishes Annual Review of Minimum Wages 2022June 21, 2022
Economic Trends 2022/1 report on Eastern Europe and Hungary publishedJune 3, 2022
E-book: Emerging European Economies after the pandemicFebruary 10, 2022
Eurofound: Minimum wages in 2022February 8, 2022
Macroeconomics, public finances, COVID-19January 17, 2022
Economic Trends 2021/3 report on E Europe and Hungary publishedNovember 3, 2021
Manufacturing sentiment index in October 2021October 11, 2021
Study on the impacts of COVID-19 on competitivenessSeptember 28, 2021
First place of Kopint-Tárki in forecasters rankingApril 28, 2021
Eurofound: Policy responses from governments and social partners to the COVID-19 pandemicApril 26, 2021
The World Economic Forum (WEF) published its 2020 reportDecember 16, 2020

	2024 Fact	2025 Forecast	2026 Forecast
GDP	0.5%	0.4%	2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation	-11.1%	-4.8%	3.0%
Industrial Production	-4.0%	-1.7%	3.0%
Gross Salaries	13.2%	8.8%	9.5%
Unemployment Rate*	4.5%	4.5%	4.4%
Current+Capital Account**	2.6%	2.0%	1.0%
General Government**	-4.9%	-4.8%	-4.8%
Consumer Price Index*	3.8%	4.7%	3.9%
MNB Base Rate***	6.5%	6.5%	6.0%
10-Year Yield***	6.55%	7.0%	6.5%

*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

02.09.2025. GDP: strong consumption growth, external position deteriorates

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP climbed 0.4%. On the expenditure side, final domestic use shifted into higher gear, supported by household consumption expenditures, but also the upturn in inventories and expanding transfers in kind.
However, the growth impact of domestic demand was virtually offset by the downward effect of net export, mostly due to the surge in the import of goods.
On the production side, the accelerating contraction in drought-stricken agriculture was offset by the upturn in construction. While industry keeps suffering, market services growth gathered some speed.
We currently expect the GDP to grow by approximately 0.5% this year.

30.07.2025. GDP expanded at a symbolic rate

According to the first estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, the unadjusted GDP volume was up 0.1% year-on-year, while the seasonally and working day adjusted volume climbed 0.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP expanded by 0.4%. On average, the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first half of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was down 0.1% over the same period.
On the production side, services were the main drivers of economic growth while industrial and agricultural production weighed on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gathered some steam, while investments likely continued to contract, amid the negative growth contribution of net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of 0.5%, since the prospect of a significant upturn in industry and exports is increasingly unlikely.

03.06.2025. GDP: Private consumption growth decelerates amid continuing fall in investments

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first quarter of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume was down 0.4%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP contracted by 0.2%, the fifth worst outcome among the EU member states.
On the expenditure side, the ongoing decline in fixed capital formation remained the main drag on growth. Meanwhile, household consumption expenditures continued to grow but the 4.1% growth is well below the average rate in 2024. Decelerating real wage growth seems to make an impact on consumption. Actual private consumption only climbed 2.2% in the first quarter. The overall final domestic use increased at a symbolic rate of 0.4%. This was, however, cancelled out by the negative growth contribution of net exports. On the production side, services continued to be the only growth driver, but even the services growth rate weakened to around 1% in the first quarter. The industrial recession and the fall in construction activity continued.
The Kopint-Tárki currently expects an annual growth rate of around 1% in 2025, but downside risks abound.