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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Macroeconomy

April 2023

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2022 (in Hungarian)

September 2022

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in the first half of 2022

April 2022

Macroeconomic and fiscal developments in 2021

August 2021

Impacts of a changing world-economic environment (including Brexit) on the EU economy and on the Hungarian economy and state budget (in Hungarian)

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness

August 2021

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in the first half of 2021 (in Hungarian)

April 2021

Overview of the macro economy and public finances in 2020 (in Hungarian)

April - September 2020

Macroeconomic and public finance situation in 2019 and the first half of 2020 (in Hungarian)

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

February 2020

Study on factors influencing Hungarian companies’ innovation activities

January 2020

Some key factors of catching up of the Hungarian economy

2018

Budgetary position in the light of the world economic conditions (in Hungarian)

2016

The tendencies of trade in value-added in the OECD countries

2016

Survey and study paper on the Hungarian investment environment

2015

Productivity and convergence- the prospects of Hungary. Tendencies and correlations

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Preliminary study on macroeconomic and budgetary forecasting methodologies

2014

Shifts in the global economy and their impact on Hungarian export market possibilities, the economic growth and the general government budget

2014

Market survey scope on export credit insurance needs/options for SMEs

2014

Study on the compliance by member states on the time needed to get licences and permits to take up and perform the specific activity of an enterprise as from beginning of 2014

2013

Development of a micro-based macromodell

2013

Compilation of development cadastre on the completed developments

2013

The role of the German economy in Hungarian economic performance

2013

Expert evaluation network: delivering policy analysis on the performance of cohesion policy 2007-2013

2012

Support to the creation of Cohesion Policy position: the rippling effect of the Central Hungarian region

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Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 2.0% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% 3.7% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 2.3% 3.5%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.5% 6.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.6% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 1.5% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.5% -5.0%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 2.0% 2.6%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 4.75% 3.75%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 5.0 4.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

01.09.2026. GDP: decelerating consumption growth, investments keep falling in Q2

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.5%. Within the EU, the Hungarian growth performance was close to the median.
Private consumption decelerated somewhat, as expected. The reacceleration of the decline in fixed capital formation was unexpected, however. At the same time, the contribution of the changes in inventories to growth became even more pronounced. Final domestic use expanded at a respectable pace of 5%.
As for external trade, the export of goods expanded in the second quarter, after almost three years of uninterrupted decline. As a result, the downward effect of net exports on GDP growth became less extreme than in the previous quarter.
On the production side, industrial growth gathered some momentum, which offset the slowdown in services growth and the steep fall in drought-stricken agriculture.
Provided that investments start expanding in the second half of the year, due to the renewed inflow of EU funds and the changed institutional background, the GDP growth rate might reach 2% in 2026.

30.07.2026. GDP: modest growth continues in Q2

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 1.7%, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP expanded by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.4%. The second-quarter growth performance somewhat fell short of the average of analysts’ expectations.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, with industry contributing positively and agriculture contributing negatively to GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably continued to severely weigh on growth.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki still expects GDP to expand at a rate of around 2%. On the other hand, the mounting shocks generated by the Iran war may upend the baseline growth scenario.

02.06.2026. GDP: strong consumption growth, further deterioration in external position

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP growth rates accelerated to 1.7% in the first quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.8%.
Private consumption accelerated markedly, with household consumption expenditures expanding by 5.5%. Due to this, and the extreme growth contribution from the changes in inventories, final domestic use grew by 6.6%. At the same time, the negative contribution by net export to GDP growth reached a level not seen in many years. On the production side, the main driver of the acceleration in GDP growth was the increase in the growth rate of services to above 2%.
GDP may grow by 2% in 2026, assuming a favorable scenario.

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