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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Studies

Business environment Company and industry analyses Development policy Labour market, migration Macroeconomy World economy
January 2020

Evaluation of the implementation of the Hungarian National Social Inclusion Strategy (HNSIS)

January 2020

Some key factors of catching up of the Hungarian economy

November 2019

Preparation of impact evaluation of EFOP 3.1.5-16 – The support of institutions endangered by early school leaving

2018

Budgetary position in the light of the world economic conditions (in Hungarian)

2017

Wage level and wage dynamics in the chemical industries (in Hungarian)

2017

Overview of the mid-term processes of the world economy on the Hungarian economy (growth) and its impact on public finances

2017

Overview of the Hungarian employment situation at the beginning of 2017

2016

The tendencies of trade in value-added in the OECD countries

2016

Survey and study paper on the Hungarian investment environment

2016

Realignment of fiscal processes in the major countries of the world economy, in the EU and Hungary in 2016

2016

The situation of the Hungarian chemical industry

2015

Realignment of fiscal processes in major countries in the world economy, in the EU and Hungary in 2015

2015

Complex impact assessment of the trade and investment agreement between the US and the EU on the Hungarian economy

2015

Productivity and convergence- the prospects of Hungary. Tendencies and correlations

2015

For jobs! Entrepreneurial newsletter 1-15

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Preliminary study on macroeconomic and budgetary forecasting methodologies

2014

Shifts in the global economy and their impact on Hungarian export market possibilities, the economic growth and the general government budget

2014

Mapping the personal income tax and the distance from the motorway

2014

Market survey scope on export credit insurance needs/options for SMEs

2014

Study on statistical data on women entrepreneurs in Europe and on the creation of an e-platform for women entrepreneurs

2014

Study on initiatives and measures to promote youth entrepreneurship

2014

Study on the compliance by member states on the time needed to get licences and permits to take up and perform the specific activity of an enterprise as from beginning of 2014

2014

The credit requests of SMEs – market practices and regulations

2013

Development of a micro-based macromodell

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Economic forecasts

2024
Fact
2025
Forecast
2026
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 0.4% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -11.1% -4.8% 3.0%
Industrial Production -4.0% -1.7% 3.0%
Gross Salaries 13.2% 8.8% 9.5%
Unemployment Rate* 4.5% 4.5% 4.4%
Current+Capital Account** 2.6% 2.0% 1.0%
General Government** -4.9% -4.8% -4.8%
Consumer Price Index* 3.8% 4.7% 3.9%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 6.5% 6.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.55% 7.0% 6.5%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

02.09.2025. GDP: strong consumption growth, external position deteriorates

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP was up 0.1% in the second quarter of 2025, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP climbed 0.4%. On the expenditure side, final domestic use shifted into higher gear, supported by household consumption expenditures, but also the upturn in inventories and expanding transfers in kind.
However, the growth impact of domestic demand was virtually offset by the downward effect of net export, mostly due to the surge in the import of goods.
On the production side, the accelerating contraction in drought-stricken agriculture was offset by the upturn in construction. While industry keeps suffering, market services growth gathered some speed.
We currently expect the GDP to grow by approximately 0.5% this year.

30.07.2025. GDP expanded at a symbolic rate

According to the first estimate, in the second quarter of 2025, the unadjusted GDP volume was up 0.1% year-on-year, while the seasonally and working day adjusted volume climbed 0.2%. Compared to the previous quarter, GDP expanded by 0.4%. On average, the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first half of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP was down 0.1% over the same period.
On the production side, services were the main drivers of economic growth while industrial and agricultural production weighed on GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption may have gathered some steam, while investments likely continued to contract, amid the negative growth contribution of net export.
For 2025 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki expects the GDP to expand at a very modest rate of 0.5%, since the prospect of a significant upturn in industry and exports is increasingly unlikely.

03.06.2025. GDP: Private consumption growth decelerates amid continuing fall in investments

The second estimate confirms that the unadjusted GDP stagnated in the first quarter of 2025, while seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP volume was down 0.4%. Compared to the previous quarter, the GDP contracted by 0.2%, the fifth worst outcome among the EU member states.
On the expenditure side, the ongoing decline in fixed capital formation remained the main drag on growth. Meanwhile, household consumption expenditures continued to grow but the 4.1% growth is well below the average rate in 2024. Decelerating real wage growth seems to make an impact on consumption. Actual private consumption only climbed 2.2% in the first quarter. The overall final domestic use increased at a symbolic rate of 0.4%. This was, however, cancelled out by the negative growth contribution of net exports. On the production side, services continued to be the only growth driver, but even the services growth rate weakened to around 1% in the first quarter. The industrial recession and the fall in construction activity continued.
The Kopint-Tárki currently expects an annual growth rate of around 1% in 2025, but downside risks abound.

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