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More than five decades in economic research. Balanced, independent and objective analysis and forecasts

Category: Development policy

November 2023

HRDOP Interventions related to lifelong learning

November 2023

Developing the early childhood service system and assessing its role in compensating for disadvantage

November 2023

Evaluation of REACT-EU-funded projects

November 2023

Impacts of developments on improving the quality of life for people living with a disability

August 2023

Evaluation of employability support schemes for disadvantaged people involved in social inclusion measures

August 2022

International economic trends in deteriorating global environment – consequences for Hungary

June 2022

Evaluation of measures to promote access to and retention in higher education

June 2022

Evaluation of EU-funded educational programmes to reduce the rate of school dropouts without a qualification

May 2022

Evaluation of health care and social public service development schemes

August 2021

The impact of COVID-19, sustainability and socio-economic development on Hungary’s competitiveness

September 2020

The Restart of European Economy and Its Impact on Central and Eastern Europe

January 2020

Evaluation of the implementation of the Hungarian National Social Inclusion Strategy (HNSIS)

November 2019

Preparation of impact evaluation of EFOP 3.1.5-16 – The support of institutions endangered by early school leaving

2014

Methodological support for the determination of indicators and base value

2014

Study on initiatives and measures to promote youth entrepreneurship

2014

The credit requests of SMEs – market practices and regulations

2013

Compilation of development cadastre on the completed developments

2012

Support to the creation of Cohesion Policy position: the rippling effect of the Central Hungarian region

2010

The changes in the Hungarian macroeconomic structure after the democratic transition, transforming the macroeconomic structure towards sustainability

2010

Mid-term evaluation of TÁMOP/TIOP

Economic forecasts

2025
Fact
2026
Forecast
2027
Forecast
GDP 0.5% 1.8% 2.5%
Gross Fixed Capital Formation -2.8% -2.0% 5.5%
Industrial Production -3.2% 4.5% 4.0%
Gross Salaries 9.0% 9.4% 6.0%
Unemployment Rate* 4.4% 4.7% 4.6%
Current+Capital Account** 2.1% 0.8% 1.0%
General Government** -4.7% -6.8% -5.0%
Consumer Price Index* 4.4% 1.8% 2.7%
MNB Base Rate*** 6.5% 5.0% 4.0%
10-Year Yield*** 6.79% 5.6% 5.2%
*annual average **in % of GDP ***at year-end

Kopint-Tárki commentary

30.10.2026. GDP growth decelerated in Q3

According to the first estimate, both the unadjusted and the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.5% in the third quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP was up 0.1%. This outcome fell short of most forecasters’ expectations.
On the production side, industry became the primary driver of economic growth, since industrial acceleration was accompanied by some deceleration in services growth. The summer drought led to a massive fall in agricultural output. On the expenditure side, private consumption growth may have moderated, along with the possible continuation of investment decline. Net exports probably kept contributing strongly negatively to economic growth.
For 2026 as a whole, Kopint-Tárki now expects the GDP to expand at a rate of 1.7-1.8%.

01.09.2026. GDP: decelerating consumption growth, investments keep falling in Q2

According to the second estimate, both unadjusted and seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP grew by 1.7% in the second quarter of 2026. Against the previous quarter, the GDP was up 0.5%. Within the EU, the Hungarian growth performance was close to the median.
Private consumption decelerated somewhat, as expected. The reacceleration of the decline in fixed capital formation was unexpected, however. At the same time, the contribution of the changes in inventories to growth became even more pronounced. Final domestic use expanded at a respectable pace of 5%.
As for external trade, the export of goods expanded in the second quarter, after almost three years of uninterrupted decline. As a result, the downward effect of net exports on GDP growth became less extreme than in the previous quarter.
On the production side, industrial growth gathered some momentum, which offset the slowdown in services growth and the steep fall in drought-stricken agriculture.
Provided that investments start expanding in the second half of the year, due to the renewed inflow of EU funds and the changed institutional background, the GDP growth rate might reach 2% in 2026.

30.07.2026. GDP: modest growth continues in Q2

According to the first estimate, unadjusted GDP was up 1.7%, while the seasonally and calendar-adjusted GDP expanded by 1.6% in the second quarter of 2026. Compared with the previous quarter, GDP grew by 0.4%. The second-quarter growth performance somewhat fell short of the average of analysts’ expectations.
On the production side, services are still the main drivers of economic growth, with industry contributing positively and agriculture contributing negatively to GDP growth. On the expenditure side, private consumption remained the primary growth factor. At the same time, net export probably continued to severely weigh on growth.
For the year as a whole, Kopint-Tárki still expects GDP to expand at a rate of around 2%. On the other hand, the mounting shocks generated by the Iran war may upend the baseline growth scenario.

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